Bayesian boosts multi-cohorts expansion design

Congratulations to Dr. Lyu for winning a second-place award of student posters in 2019 DIA China annual meeting.

The 2019 DIA China annual meeting was held successfully at the Beijing Convention Center from 05/21 – 05/23, 2019. Laiya Consulting’s statistician Dr. Lyu won the second place award of student posters for her work titled “MUCE: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Multiple Cohort Expansion” that took part in the student poster exhibition on 22nd. She also made a presentation of if after winning the award.

Her poster was written against the backdrop of the 2018 guidance on multiple cohort expansion and described the benefits of the newly developed Bayesian Hierarchical Model (MUCE) and its applications. It compares four different designs – MUCE, Simon’s Two Stage, Berry’s BHM and CBHM, through which it’s shown how the Bayesian Hierarchical Model could improve statistical power by borrowing information from different cohorts, while effectively avoiding the problem of type 1 error inflation.



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  1. FDA draft guidance (2018). Expansion Cohorts: Use in First-In-Human Clinical Trials to Expedite Development of Oncology Drugs and Biologics Guidance for Industry.
  2. Berry, S. M., Broglio, K. R., Groshen, S., Berry, D. A. (2013). Bayesian hierarchical modeling of patient subpopulations: efficient designs of phase II oncology clinical trials. Clinical Trials, 10(5), 720-734.
  3. Chu, Y., Yuan, Y. (2018). A Bayesian basket trial design using a calibrated Bayesian hierarchical model. Clinical Trials, 15(2), 149-158.

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